No intro necessary except to say here are my thoughts/picks on the 2017/2018 Oscars by category (organized from least to most important category).
Best Hairstyle/Makeup: Darkest Hour; Victoria & Abdul; Wonder
My vote: Darkest Hour
Projected winner: Darkest Hour
Other thoughts: Expand the field to 5 like everything else so films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and I, Tonya can be included next time.
Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was the best film all year, especially in technical categories. It should win everywhere, but vote splits could lead to Blade Runner 2049 or Star Wars: The Last Jedi winning. Also, Baby Driver has no business being in any Oscar category this year.
Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: See above, but The Shape of Water has a better shot here than Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Best Costumes: Beauty and the Beast; Darkest Hour; Phantom Thread; The Shape of Water; Victoria & Abdul
My vote: Beauty and the Beast
Projected winner: Phantom Thread
Other thoughts: The only tolerable thing about this POS, boring as hell film was Day-Lewis and the artistic quality. It is almost a shoo-in to win here, though I think the live-action costumes of Beauty and the Beast are too beautiful to ignore.
Best Production Design: Beauty and the Beast; Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water
My vote: Blade Runner 2049
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: This is the only aspect of the film that is objectively better Dunkirk. It is easily one of the most beautifully set films I’ve ever seen.
Best Animated Film: The Boss Baby; The Breadwinner; Coco; Ferdinand; Loving Vincent
My vote: The Breadwinner
Projected winner: Coco
Other thoughts: Disney bias. Coco has no business beating the beautifully hand-drawn film of Tomm Moore, who has worked on exactly three films so far in his young career and has all three of them nominated in this field. His work has been criminally overlooked, and the story about a young Afghani girl who dresses up like a man after her father dies in order to work to earn money for her family is a much better film than Disney’s latest.
Best Song: “Mighty River;” “Mystery of Love;” “Remember Me;” Stand Up for Something;” “This is Me”
My vote: “Mystery of Love”
Projected winner: “This is Me”
Other thoughts: I loved “Mystery of Love” (from Call Me by Your Name). It was beautiful, calm, and perfectly embodied the film lyrically. But “This is Me” (from The Greatest Showman) is easy listening, appeals to all, and evokes a sense of happiness.
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Kong: Skull Island; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; War for the Planet of the Apes
My vote: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: Truth be told, my vote was for Dunkirk, which was criminally robbed of a nod here. But Blade Runner 2049 and Star Wars: The Last Jedi are the two most beautifully effected films in the list, and Dunkirk would’ve been hard-pressed to win. This is the most up in the air category of the night.
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Mudbound; The Shape of Water
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was shot better than the film that will win. It just was. But Blade Runner 2049 is nothing without its cinematography. So it will win not because it was the best, but because it was the most valuable cinematography.
Best Film Editing: Baby Driver; Dunkirk; I, Tonya; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: The only good thing about Baby Driver was the film editing. If it wins here, upset or not, I will not be upset.
Best Score: Dunkirk; Phantom Thread; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: The Shape of Water
Other thoughts: For some reason, Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk) just can’t beat Alexadre Desplat (The Shape of Water), even though he should each freakin time. Zimmer based his entire score around the ticking of a pocket watch. Desplat was nowhere near as artistic.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name; The Disaster Artist; Logan; Molly’s Game; Mudbound
My vote: Logan (Call Me by Your Name)
Projected winner: Call Me by Your Name
Other thoughts: I would vote for Logan because it was robbed in so many other categories that it should win just to make up for the BS. But Call Me by Your Name was written almost as beautifully as it was acted.
Best Original Screenplay: The Big Sick; Get Out; Lady Bird; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: The Shape of Water
Projected winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: The Shape of Water could very well win, but the Oscars have not typically awarded sci-fi films any writing awards. Add in Three Billboards script writer Martin McDonagh’s missing nod for Best Director, and I suspect they will make up for this insane oversight on their part. Both are worthy; either would be acceptable.
Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige; Allison Janney; Lesley Manville; Laurie Metcalf; Octavia Spencer
My vote: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Projected winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Other thoughts: She was the best this year. Lesley Manville was surprisingly good in Phantom Thread, but not good enough.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe; Woody Harrelson; Richard Jenkins; Christopher Plummer; Sam Rockwell
My vote: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Projected winner: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: If Woody Harrelson had more screen time, he would have this in the bag. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) should also be up here.
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet; Daniel Day-Lewis; Daniel Kaluuya; Gary Oldman; Denzel Washington
My vote: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Projected winner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Other thoughts: He not only played Churchill, he freakin WAS Churchill. Also, Washington was only nominated because he should have won last year and this is how the Academy apologizes; Tom Hanks (The Post) and Hugh Jackman (Logan) were far more deserving than he this year.
Best Actress: Sally Hawkins; Frances McDormand; Margot Robbie; Saoirse Ronan; Meryl Streep
My vote: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Projected winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: She wins. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) is a close second.
Best Director: Chris Nolan; Jordan Peele; Greta Gerwig; Paul Thomas Anderson; Guillermo del Toro
My vote: Chris Nolan, Dunkirk
Projected winner: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Other thoughts: It’s between these two because McDonagh got passed over for Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) for some stupid reason. They both excel; both Nolan and del Toro are overdue and this is only their first nominations in the category, as hard as it is to believe. Either way, a legendary director will get his much deserved reward tonight.
Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was my favorite, amazing, and the best in so many ways, but Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was just a higher class of film. I won’t be shocked to see The Shape of Water come away with the prize. But Phantom Thread has no business being in this conversation. I, Tonya, Logan, and Wind River were snubbed here and in so many other categories that I find it hard to believe there wasn’t any funny business going on behind the curtain with promoting Phantom Thread. Whatever shady deals made with people or the devil, it’s nominated, but thankfully, it will lose to one of three deserving films (Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk).
Best Hairstyle/Makeup: Darkest Hour; Victoria & Abdul; Wonder
My vote: Darkest Hour
Projected winner: Darkest Hour
Other thoughts: Expand the field to 5 like everything else so films like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and I, Tonya can be included next time.
Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was the best film all year, especially in technical categories. It should win everywhere, but vote splits could lead to Blade Runner 2049 or Star Wars: The Last Jedi winning. Also, Baby Driver has no business being in any Oscar category this year.
Best Sound Editing: Baby Driver; Blade Runner 2049; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: See above, but The Shape of Water has a better shot here than Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Best Costumes: Beauty and the Beast; Darkest Hour; Phantom Thread; The Shape of Water; Victoria & Abdul
My vote: Beauty and the Beast
Projected winner: Phantom Thread
Other thoughts: The only tolerable thing about this POS, boring as hell film was Day-Lewis and the artistic quality. It is almost a shoo-in to win here, though I think the live-action costumes of Beauty and the Beast are too beautiful to ignore.
Best Production Design: Beauty and the Beast; Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; The Shape of Water
My vote: Blade Runner 2049
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: This is the only aspect of the film that is objectively better Dunkirk. It is easily one of the most beautifully set films I’ve ever seen.
Best Animated Film: The Boss Baby; The Breadwinner; Coco; Ferdinand; Loving Vincent
My vote: The Breadwinner
Projected winner: Coco
Other thoughts: Disney bias. Coco has no business beating the beautifully hand-drawn film of Tomm Moore, who has worked on exactly three films so far in his young career and has all three of them nominated in this field. His work has been criminally overlooked, and the story about a young Afghani girl who dresses up like a man after her father dies in order to work to earn money for her family is a much better film than Disney’s latest.
Best Song: “Mighty River;” “Mystery of Love;” “Remember Me;” Stand Up for Something;” “This is Me”
My vote: “Mystery of Love”
Projected winner: “This is Me”
Other thoughts: I loved “Mystery of Love” (from Call Me by Your Name). It was beautiful, calm, and perfectly embodied the film lyrically. But “This is Me” (from The Greatest Showman) is easy listening, appeals to all, and evokes a sense of happiness.
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Kong: Skull Island; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; War for the Planet of the Apes
My vote: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: Truth be told, my vote was for Dunkirk, which was criminally robbed of a nod here. But Blade Runner 2049 and Star Wars: The Last Jedi are the two most beautifully effected films in the list, and Dunkirk would’ve been hard-pressed to win. This is the most up in the air category of the night.
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Mudbound; The Shape of Water
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Blade Runner 2049
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was shot better than the film that will win. It just was. But Blade Runner 2049 is nothing without its cinematography. So it will win not because it was the best, but because it was the most valuable cinematography.
Best Film Editing: Baby Driver; Dunkirk; I, Tonya; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Dunkirk
Other thoughts: The only good thing about Baby Driver was the film editing. If it wins here, upset or not, I will not be upset.
Best Score: Dunkirk; Phantom Thread; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: The Shape of Water
Other thoughts: For some reason, Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk) just can’t beat Alexadre Desplat (The Shape of Water), even though he should each freakin time. Zimmer based his entire score around the ticking of a pocket watch. Desplat was nowhere near as artistic.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name; The Disaster Artist; Logan; Molly’s Game; Mudbound
My vote: Logan (Call Me by Your Name)
Projected winner: Call Me by Your Name
Other thoughts: I would vote for Logan because it was robbed in so many other categories that it should win just to make up for the BS. But Call Me by Your Name was written almost as beautifully as it was acted.
Best Original Screenplay: The Big Sick; Get Out; Lady Bird; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: The Shape of Water
Projected winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: The Shape of Water could very well win, but the Oscars have not typically awarded sci-fi films any writing awards. Add in Three Billboards script writer Martin McDonagh’s missing nod for Best Director, and I suspect they will make up for this insane oversight on their part. Both are worthy; either would be acceptable.
Best Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige; Allison Janney; Lesley Manville; Laurie Metcalf; Octavia Spencer
My vote: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Projected winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Other thoughts: She was the best this year. Lesley Manville was surprisingly good in Phantom Thread, but not good enough.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe; Woody Harrelson; Richard Jenkins; Christopher Plummer; Sam Rockwell
My vote: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Projected winner: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: If Woody Harrelson had more screen time, he would have this in the bag. Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) should also be up here.
Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet; Daniel Day-Lewis; Daniel Kaluuya; Gary Oldman; Denzel Washington
My vote: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Projected winner: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Other thoughts: He not only played Churchill, he freakin WAS Churchill. Also, Washington was only nominated because he should have won last year and this is how the Academy apologizes; Tom Hanks (The Post) and Hugh Jackman (Logan) were far more deserving than he this year.
Best Actress: Sally Hawkins; Frances McDormand; Margot Robbie; Saoirse Ronan; Meryl Streep
My vote: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Projected winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: She wins. Margot Robbie (I, Tonya) is a close second.
Best Director: Chris Nolan; Jordan Peele; Greta Gerwig; Paul Thomas Anderson; Guillermo del Toro
My vote: Chris Nolan, Dunkirk
Projected winner: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Other thoughts: It’s between these two because McDonagh got passed over for Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) for some stupid reason. They both excel; both Nolan and del Toro are overdue and this is only their first nominations in the category, as hard as it is to believe. Either way, a legendary director will get his much deserved reward tonight.
Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name; Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Phantom Thread; The Post; The Shape of Water; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My vote: Dunkirk
Projected winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other thoughts: Dunkirk was my favorite, amazing, and the best in so many ways, but Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was just a higher class of film. I won’t be shocked to see The Shape of Water come away with the prize. But Phantom Thread has no business being in this conversation. I, Tonya, Logan, and Wind River were snubbed here and in so many other categories that I find it hard to believe there wasn’t any funny business going on behind the curtain with promoting Phantom Thread. Whatever shady deals made with people or the devil, it’s nominated, but thankfully, it will lose to one of three deserving films (Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk).