by Adam McPartlan
It's my favorite time of year: Oscar season. My usual predictions hit about 75% of the nominees due to various things, like random surprises, really stupid snubs, or the Academy overlooking better movies for bigger movies. But this year I'm gonna try for that perfect 100 and not let my personal feelings for certain movies, like Emma. and Da 5 Bloods, cloud my judgment. So, with little blurbs to explain various things after each category, here are my picks for each category at the Oscars (minus the shorts and documentary). Nominations come out tomorrow morning; hope I'm right.
It's my favorite time of year: Oscar season. My usual predictions hit about 75% of the nominees due to various things, like random surprises, really stupid snubs, or the Academy overlooking better movies for bigger movies. But this year I'm gonna try for that perfect 100 and not let my personal feelings for certain movies, like Emma. and Da 5 Bloods, cloud my judgment. So, with little blurbs to explain various things after each category, here are my picks for each category at the Oscars (minus the shorts and documentary). Nominations come out tomorrow morning; hope I'm right.
Best International Film
Predicted Nominees: Another Round; Quo Vadis, Aida?; Two of Us; La Llorona; The Man Who Sold His Skin
Possible Surprise(s): Better Days; A Sun
General Thoughts: The surprises would be more due to politics than anything else, as Better Days and A Sun come from Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. Regardless of who is nominated, Another Round is going to run away with it this year.
Best Animated Film
Predicted Nominees: Soul, Wolfwalkers, Onward, Over the Moon, Croods: A New Age
Possible Surprise(s): None
General Thoughts: These are gonna be the nominees. There's no one else that can compete, and it's really a two horse race regardless: Soul vs. Wolfwalkers.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Possible Surprise(s): Mulan; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mulan would be an interesting surprise, but so would Billie Holiday. Mank would actually deserve a spot here for their 30s-themed costumes. But it should be Ma Rainey vs. Emma. all the way.
Best Hair & Makeup
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn; Hillbilly Elegy; Mank; The Trial of the Chicago 7
Possible Surprise(s): Pinocchio; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank has no business getting the number of nominations it will get. The whole story is interesting, but if it wasn't made about the old days of Hollywood, it wouldn't get the recognition it's been getting.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees: Tenet; Welcome to Chechnya; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Possible Surprise(s): Mank
General Thoughts: Again, Mank would not deserve a spot here. There is nothing remotely interesting about the visuals, let alone exceptional. To put it plainly, if Mank gets nominated here, it's gonna be a long day for Spike Lee and Da 5 Bloods.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees: Sound of Metal; Soul; Tenet; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; News of the World
Possible Surprise(s): Mank; Da 5 Bloods; The Trial of the Chicago 7
General Thoughts: If the Oscars give Mank love here, I may just give up on life. Sound of Metal is winning this category regardless, though.
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Mulan
Possible Surprise(s): Tenet; The Trial of the Chicago 7
General Thoughts: The only good thing about Tenet was the production value, so it could clean up in the technical awards. But Emma.'s production was the best of the year, so if it gets snubbed, you might hear me screaming from the Bronx.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Sound of Metal; Nomadland; Mank; Da 5 Bloods
Possible Surprise(s): Promising Young Woman; The Father
General Thoughts: Once again, Mank would not deserve this nomination, and Da 5 Bloods is kind of an outlandish claim unfortunately, but I have hope the Oscars are gonna rectify a lot of the snubbing that has gone the way of Lee's masterpiece.
Best Song
Predicted Nominees: "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead; "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami; "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7; "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah; "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest
Possible Surprise(s): "Rain Song" from Minari
General Thoughts: This is a two horse race: "Speak Now" vs. "Io Sì (Seen)," though there is a chance for a vote split and HER's beautiful song "Fight For You" pulls out the upset.
Best Score
Predicted Nominees: News of the World; Soul; Tenet; The Midnight Sky; Mank
Possible Surprise(s): Minari; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Da 5 Bloods
General Thoughts: Mank has solid music, but rest of the possible nominees are far better. It's probably gonna be a real bad day for Spike Lee...
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees: Nomadland; News of the World; Minari; Mank; Tenet
Possible Surprise(s): Da 5 Bloods; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank, once again, undeserving. I really hope the Oscars surprise us all and leave Mank out of everything...
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees: Nomadland; First Cow; The Father; One Night in Miami; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Possible Surprise(s): News of the World; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
General Thoughts: First Cow deserves to be nominated in so many more categories than it ultimately will be nominated in, so I actually kind of expect it will break in here. That said, Hollywood likes bigger names to better but smaller movies, so...News of the World will probably steal it here.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Promising Young Woman; Minari; Sound of Metal; Mank
Possible Surprise(s): Da 5 Bloods; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank has no business being in contention here. The writing from everyone else is so much stronger and more interesting...if Da 5 Bloods gets in here, then things would be looking way up for Lee's film.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees: Olivia Coleman, The Father; Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari; Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Helena Zengel, News of the World
Possible Surprise(s): Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
General Thoughts: Neither Seyfried nor Close are bad options here, though Close's movie certainly was awful. Zengel had very few lines, but she was absolutely fantastic on the screen, and I fully believe she will get nominated in spite of her age (8 years old). Foster is a bit of a stretch, but The Mauritanian is not gonna get much love, so Foster seems a likely surprise here, especially after her Golden Globe victory.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees: Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami; Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Possible Surprise(s): Alan Kim, Minari; Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Clarke Peters and Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods; Aldis Hodge, One Night In Miami
General Thoughts: This field could go any which way. The only locks are Kaluuya, Odom, and Boseman,and while Cohen is more than likely a lock as well, the full casts of Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and One Night in Miami make everything a cluster.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman; Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Possible Surprise(s): Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead; Yeri Han, Minari; Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.
General Thoughts: After watching Nomadland, I must admit, McDormand is fantastic, but she is not a worthy nominee this year. Yeri Han's performance as a conflicted wife and mother is heartbreaking and powerful. I truly hope she finds a way in. Taylor-Joy's outside chance is more wishful thinking on my part, but she truly was wonderful in the film; if only the movie was released later in the year instead of last February...
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Anthony Hopkins, The Father; Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods; Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Steven Yuen, Minari
Possible Surprise(s): Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round; Gary Oldman, Mank; Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night In Miami; Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
General Thoughts: Gary Oldman has no business getting nominated here. He won an Oscar and his performance was not up to snuff with the rest of the field. The Oscars should've expanded all fields this year, but alas, the artists are not that lucky. If Lindo is snubbed...
Best Director
Predicted Nominees: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland; Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods; Regina King, One Night in Miami; Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Possible Surprise(s): Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman; David Fincher, Mank
General Thoughts: Continuing the general thought train that has persisted throughout the piece, Mank would be totally undeserving compared to the rest of the field. Promising Young Woman would be a nice choice, but compared to the rest, I don't agree It would accurately reflect who had the best year in directing.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees: Mank; Minari; One Night In Miami; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Nomadland; Da 5 Bloods; The Father; Promising Young Woman; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Judas and the Black Messiah
Possible Surprise(s): Emma.; Sound of Metal; News of the World
General Thoughts: Emma. really should be nominated here; it was one of the best films of the year from top to bottom. Sound of Metal and News of the World were outstanding films; I just don't find either of them to be better than the final 10.
Predicted Nominees: Another Round; Quo Vadis, Aida?; Two of Us; La Llorona; The Man Who Sold His Skin
Possible Surprise(s): Better Days; A Sun
General Thoughts: The surprises would be more due to politics than anything else, as Better Days and A Sun come from Hong Kong and Taiwan respectively. Regardless of who is nominated, Another Round is going to run away with it this year.
Best Animated Film
Predicted Nominees: Soul, Wolfwalkers, Onward, Over the Moon, Croods: A New Age
Possible Surprise(s): None
General Thoughts: These are gonna be the nominees. There's no one else that can compete, and it's really a two horse race regardless: Soul vs. Wolfwalkers.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Possible Surprise(s): Mulan; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mulan would be an interesting surprise, but so would Billie Holiday. Mank would actually deserve a spot here for their 30s-themed costumes. But it should be Ma Rainey vs. Emma. all the way.
Best Hair & Makeup
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn; Hillbilly Elegy; Mank; The Trial of the Chicago 7
Possible Surprise(s): Pinocchio; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank has no business getting the number of nominations it will get. The whole story is interesting, but if it wasn't made about the old days of Hollywood, it wouldn't get the recognition it's been getting.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees: Tenet; Welcome to Chechnya; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn
Possible Surprise(s): Mank
General Thoughts: Again, Mank would not deserve a spot here. There is nothing remotely interesting about the visuals, let alone exceptional. To put it plainly, if Mank gets nominated here, it's gonna be a long day for Spike Lee and Da 5 Bloods.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees: Sound of Metal; Soul; Tenet; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; News of the World
Possible Surprise(s): Mank; Da 5 Bloods; The Trial of the Chicago 7
General Thoughts: If the Oscars give Mank love here, I may just give up on life. Sound of Metal is winning this category regardless, though.
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees: Emma.; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Mulan
Possible Surprise(s): Tenet; The Trial of the Chicago 7
General Thoughts: The only good thing about Tenet was the production value, so it could clean up in the technical awards. But Emma.'s production was the best of the year, so if it gets snubbed, you might hear me screaming from the Bronx.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Sound of Metal; Nomadland; Mank; Da 5 Bloods
Possible Surprise(s): Promising Young Woman; The Father
General Thoughts: Once again, Mank would not deserve this nomination, and Da 5 Bloods is kind of an outlandish claim unfortunately, but I have hope the Oscars are gonna rectify a lot of the snubbing that has gone the way of Lee's masterpiece.
Best Song
Predicted Nominees: "Io Sì (Seen)" from The Life Ahead; "Speak Now" from One Night in Miami; "Hear My Voice" from The Trial of the Chicago 7; "Fight for You" from Judas and the Black Messiah; "Husavik" from Eurovision Song Contest
Possible Surprise(s): "Rain Song" from Minari
General Thoughts: This is a two horse race: "Speak Now" vs. "Io Sì (Seen)," though there is a chance for a vote split and HER's beautiful song "Fight For You" pulls out the upset.
Best Score
Predicted Nominees: News of the World; Soul; Tenet; The Midnight Sky; Mank
Possible Surprise(s): Minari; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Da 5 Bloods
General Thoughts: Mank has solid music, but rest of the possible nominees are far better. It's probably gonna be a real bad day for Spike Lee...
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees: Nomadland; News of the World; Minari; Mank; Tenet
Possible Surprise(s): Da 5 Bloods; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank, once again, undeserving. I really hope the Oscars surprise us all and leave Mank out of everything...
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees: Nomadland; First Cow; The Father; One Night in Miami; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Possible Surprise(s): News of the World; Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
General Thoughts: First Cow deserves to be nominated in so many more categories than it ultimately will be nominated in, so I actually kind of expect it will break in here. That said, Hollywood likes bigger names to better but smaller movies, so...News of the World will probably steal it here.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees: The Trial of the Chicago 7; Promising Young Woman; Minari; Sound of Metal; Mank
Possible Surprise(s): Da 5 Bloods; Judas and the Black Messiah
General Thoughts: Mank has no business being in contention here. The writing from everyone else is so much stronger and more interesting...if Da 5 Bloods gets in here, then things would be looking way up for Lee's film.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees: Olivia Coleman, The Father; Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari; Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian; Helena Zengel, News of the World
Possible Surprise(s): Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
General Thoughts: Neither Seyfried nor Close are bad options here, though Close's movie certainly was awful. Zengel had very few lines, but she was absolutely fantastic on the screen, and I fully believe she will get nominated in spite of her age (8 years old). Foster is a bit of a stretch, but The Mauritanian is not gonna get much love, so Foster seems a likely surprise here, especially after her Golden Globe victory.
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees: Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night In Miami; Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods; Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah; Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Possible Surprise(s): Alan Kim, Minari; Mark Rylance, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Clarke Peters and Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods; Aldis Hodge, One Night In Miami
General Thoughts: This field could go any which way. The only locks are Kaluuya, Odom, and Boseman,and while Cohen is more than likely a lock as well, the full casts of Da 5 Bloods, The Trial of the Chicago 7, and One Night in Miami make everything a cluster.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman; Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman; Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday; Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Possible Surprise(s): Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead; Yeri Han, Minari; Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.
General Thoughts: After watching Nomadland, I must admit, McDormand is fantastic, but she is not a worthy nominee this year. Yeri Han's performance as a conflicted wife and mother is heartbreaking and powerful. I truly hope she finds a way in. Taylor-Joy's outside chance is more wishful thinking on my part, but she truly was wonderful in the film; if only the movie was released later in the year instead of last February...
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Anthony Hopkins, The Father; Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods; Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal; Steven Yuen, Minari
Possible Surprise(s): Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round; Gary Oldman, Mank; Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night In Miami; Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian
General Thoughts: Gary Oldman has no business getting nominated here. He won an Oscar and his performance was not up to snuff with the rest of the field. The Oscars should've expanded all fields this year, but alas, the artists are not that lucky. If Lindo is snubbed...
Best Director
Predicted Nominees: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland; Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7; Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods; Regina King, One Night in Miami; Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Possible Surprise(s): Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman; David Fincher, Mank
General Thoughts: Continuing the general thought train that has persisted throughout the piece, Mank would be totally undeserving compared to the rest of the field. Promising Young Woman would be a nice choice, but compared to the rest, I don't agree It would accurately reflect who had the best year in directing.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees: Mank; Minari; One Night In Miami; The Trial of the Chicago 7; Nomadland; Da 5 Bloods; The Father; Promising Young Woman; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Judas and the Black Messiah
Possible Surprise(s): Emma.; Sound of Metal; News of the World
General Thoughts: Emma. really should be nominated here; it was one of the best films of the year from top to bottom. Sound of Metal and News of the World were outstanding films; I just don't find either of them to be better than the final 10.