With the final month of baseball fast approaching, I look back on my preseason choices that went well (Toronto and Baltimore fighting over the AL East with Boston, the Cubs dominating, and the Dodgers looking good as usual) and some that went…poorly (I’m looking at you, Arizona…you too “Amazin’s”). In the hopes of salvaging those bad decisions, I now present my version of “Bold Predictions,” titled “Outlandish Claims.” (Five for each the American League and National League.)
American League
The Kansas City Royals WILL WIN the AL Central
At the start of July, the Royals hardly looked like the team that stumbled into the playoffs in 2014 and rallied back against the Oakland A’s in the Wild Card game than their improved selves, the 2015 World Series champions. Thanks to the likes of Danny Duffy (who?) and Ian Kennedy (in a year not numbered 2011), the Royals find themselves only seven games out of first place. Furthermore, the once-heralded Cleveland Indians starting rotation now finds itself on something of a skid, with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin getting pummeled in recent starts (though Bauer has bounced back lately). Expect the Royals to pull their late-inning magic again, this time in the form of late-season magic, and reclaim its AL Central crown. What’s that? Seven games is too much to overcome? Tell that to the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals, who overcame nine and 10.5 game deficits respectively with just over a month to play. And did I mention that the Cardinals won the World Series that year?
The Toronto Blue Jays fight off the Red Sox, Orioles, and a late-charge from the Yankees to win the East
In the post-Joey Bats bat-flip world (try saying that three times fast), it’s hard to imagine any team other than the Blue Jays winning the East. This year, however, the walking home run fest finds its home in Baltimore, with Mark Trumbo (38), Adam Jones (24), Chris Davis (30), and Manny Machado (28). Coupled with shining performances from a normally inept starting rotation, particularly Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, has made them more threatening than in previous years. The Red Sox also find themselves in a different position, as, for the first time ever, a former Tampa Bay player (David Price) is managing semi-decent numbers on their team and not shooting them in the feet. Add in the new generation Killer B’s (Bogaerts, Bradley, Jr., and Betts) and the tag team efforts of Rick Porcello (when did he get Cy Young good?) and Drew Pomeranz (the Killer P’s?), and you have a force to be reckoned with. The Yankees, however, find themselves in a less-than-desirable fourth place in the East, yet only seven games back of first. Their trades replenished their farm system, which is what made them so dominant in the 90s. Newly promoted players (Aaron Judge more than Tyler Austin) and solid pitching make this a team primed for a late push.
The Mariners and Rangers miss the playoffs
The Mariners have played extraordinarily well lately. Hisashi Iwakuma, however, has really underwhelmed this year after a strong showing last season. Equally disappointing all season long have been the bumbling, stumbling Texas Rangers, who find themselves in a miraculous position: 21 games over .500 with a run differential of -2, the only division leader with a negative RD. All other division leaders have at least a +72; all Wild Card holders have at least 1 +26; and (to add to the embarrassment), the woeful Colorado Rockies have a +11 RD. The numbers will catch up to them in September, and they will crash out to the currently 3rd place Astros, with neither the strongmen Mariners nor the incredibly lucky Rangers even managing a Wild Card spot.
Chris Sale goes to the NL (team to be specified in the NL section)
Let’s face it: the White Sox are pathetic and need to rebuild. It started with Adam LaRoche and his son; now it’s the mishandling of Chris Sale. Granted what Sale did to his team’s uniforms was a bit over-the-top to say the least, if he was on a playoff contending team, that team’s front office would bend over backwards to make sure they got those 7+ innings out of their ace pitcher. Wins are hard to come by in the NL Wild Card race, so look for a certain pitcher-minded team to reel him in.
The five playoff teams will be the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros……….
The Wild Card game in the AL will be the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Boston Red Sox (If Baltimore’s Chris Tillman gets off the Disabled List sooner rather than later). With Baltimore’s ace now out for at least a week, their whole team is in jeopardy of falling out of second place. Their stellar offense should be enough to hold them up for a week or so (look at what the Dodgers are doing without Kershaw), but with a pitcher-lacking team like Baltimore, it’s hard to imagine they’ll hold up for long. (If the Orioles collapse, the Red Sox will host the Tigers.)
National League
Chris Sale helps the Marlins grab the second Wild Card spot
Starting off the NL side with a big one. I know what you’re thinking: this guy was outlandish in the AL; now he’s just lost his complete $&!*@%# mind. But before you grab your pitchforks and torches and start yelling at ATE to dispense with me, consider this: he is one of the best pitchers today. Say what you will about him, the Marlins have one of the best players in history as their batting coach, and a manager with immense postseason experience, including a World Series-winning team (2009 Yankees), as well as great skill in handling the MLB’s most dominant pitcher in recent times (Kershaw). He is the only manager in Brooklyn Dodgers/LA Dodgers history to win three consecutive NL West titles, and if that doesn’t spark your interest in the possibility that this move happens, consider the 1-2 punch of Fernandez-Sale in the playoffs. Certainly an improvement on Fernandez-Koehler or Fernandez-Phelps, wouldn’t you say?
The Cubs have long since locked up the NL Central; they will lock up a 100 win season, but only barely
The Cubs are, in the words of Tony Kornheiser, the 1927 Murderer’s Row Yankees. He’s right, in that they are the most dominant team in sports this year and in recent memory. He’s also wrong, because the Cubs will not win more than 105 games, whereas the 1927 Yankees won well over that with fewer games in the season. The facts are these: the Cubs, no matter how exceptional, have one of the toughest schedules in the last month of the season. They play the Dodgers and Pirates three games each to close out August. Then, September puts them against the even-year Giants 4x, the future AL West champion Astros 3x, and the Wild Card hopeful Cardinals (6x) and Pirates (4x). They have dominated NL Central play all season, but inter-divisional rivalries bring all kinds of weird results, so don’t be shocked if the four games against Cincy and the 7 against Milwaukee yield less than desirable results for the South Siders. I predict they go 103-59.
San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers for the West or nothing
The Dodgers currently (magically, mystically, and astonishingly) have not collapsed with the injury of Clayton Kershaw, their MVP, the NL MVP, the most dominant pitcher in recent memory, etc. etc. The Giants, meanwhile, find themselves in a reversal of fortune, sitting in second place in an even year going into the last month of season play. Only one will make it, and much to the chagrin of Giants fans, Bruce Bochy will not lead them to the playoffs again. Sub-note: no matter if this is right or wrong, neither the Dodgers nor Giants will make it to the NLCS.
Thank God the Nationals released Papelbon, because the Marlins and Mets are going to scratch, claw, rip, bite, and tear away at their NL East lead
The Nationals made the drastic mistake last season of adding Jonathon Papelbon to their roster to take over closing duties from Drew Storen. Immediately after the deal, I turned to my mother and said, “The Nats just lost the East.” How did I know? Because I said the same thing four years earlier during game 162 between the Orioles and Red Sox. The Sox put Papelbon in with a one run lead in the bottom of the 9th, and he coughed it up almost instantly. Papelbon was a fantastic closer 10…even seven years ago. His presence on the team was a complete boondoggle on the part of the Nationals organization, so acquiring Mark Melancon from the Pirates assures that they will hold on to their NL East crown this time around.
The five playoff teams will be the Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers……….
We already ruled out the Giants, which leaves four possibilities: the Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, and Pirates. The Cardinals currently own the second Wild Card slot, but look at their schedule. The same logic that applied to the Cubs will apply here to the Cardinals, just slightly worse. They currently find themselves only 1.5 games ahead of the Marlins. Of their remaining games, 12 are against non-NL Central teams, and of those, only 6 are against sub-.500 teams. Granted there are many Milwaukee and Cincy games on the docket, but they will lose at least 3 or four of those 14. Combine that with an 11-game road trip of rough outings at San Fran and the home run-happy Coors field of the Rockies, culminating in a four game stint at Wrigley, the Cardinals draw the short end of the stick here, missing out on the playoffs. The Mets have the easiest schedule remaining of the three, with Miami close behind. Pittsburgh has too many NL Central games to make up the three games to get into the playoffs, but the Mets and Marlins (Miami especially if they land Chris Sale) have games against Philly, Atlanta (same division as both MIA and NYM, but much less competitive than the NL Central, as well as far weaker teams than MIL and CIN), San Diego, a crashing Cleveland team, Cincy, and Minnesota. This wild Card year will be an NL East-dominated one, with the Marlins hosting the Mets.
American League
The Kansas City Royals WILL WIN the AL Central
At the start of July, the Royals hardly looked like the team that stumbled into the playoffs in 2014 and rallied back against the Oakland A’s in the Wild Card game than their improved selves, the 2015 World Series champions. Thanks to the likes of Danny Duffy (who?) and Ian Kennedy (in a year not numbered 2011), the Royals find themselves only seven games out of first place. Furthermore, the once-heralded Cleveland Indians starting rotation now finds itself on something of a skid, with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin getting pummeled in recent starts (though Bauer has bounced back lately). Expect the Royals to pull their late-inning magic again, this time in the form of late-season magic, and reclaim its AL Central crown. What’s that? Seven games is too much to overcome? Tell that to the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals, who overcame nine and 10.5 game deficits respectively with just over a month to play. And did I mention that the Cardinals won the World Series that year?
The Toronto Blue Jays fight off the Red Sox, Orioles, and a late-charge from the Yankees to win the East
In the post-Joey Bats bat-flip world (try saying that three times fast), it’s hard to imagine any team other than the Blue Jays winning the East. This year, however, the walking home run fest finds its home in Baltimore, with Mark Trumbo (38), Adam Jones (24), Chris Davis (30), and Manny Machado (28). Coupled with shining performances from a normally inept starting rotation, particularly Chris Tillman and Dylan Bundy, has made them more threatening than in previous years. The Red Sox also find themselves in a different position, as, for the first time ever, a former Tampa Bay player (David Price) is managing semi-decent numbers on their team and not shooting them in the feet. Add in the new generation Killer B’s (Bogaerts, Bradley, Jr., and Betts) and the tag team efforts of Rick Porcello (when did he get Cy Young good?) and Drew Pomeranz (the Killer P’s?), and you have a force to be reckoned with. The Yankees, however, find themselves in a less-than-desirable fourth place in the East, yet only seven games back of first. Their trades replenished their farm system, which is what made them so dominant in the 90s. Newly promoted players (Aaron Judge more than Tyler Austin) and solid pitching make this a team primed for a late push.
The Mariners and Rangers miss the playoffs
The Mariners have played extraordinarily well lately. Hisashi Iwakuma, however, has really underwhelmed this year after a strong showing last season. Equally disappointing all season long have been the bumbling, stumbling Texas Rangers, who find themselves in a miraculous position: 21 games over .500 with a run differential of -2, the only division leader with a negative RD. All other division leaders have at least a +72; all Wild Card holders have at least 1 +26; and (to add to the embarrassment), the woeful Colorado Rockies have a +11 RD. The numbers will catch up to them in September, and they will crash out to the currently 3rd place Astros, with neither the strongmen Mariners nor the incredibly lucky Rangers even managing a Wild Card spot.
Chris Sale goes to the NL (team to be specified in the NL section)
Let’s face it: the White Sox are pathetic and need to rebuild. It started with Adam LaRoche and his son; now it’s the mishandling of Chris Sale. Granted what Sale did to his team’s uniforms was a bit over-the-top to say the least, if he was on a playoff contending team, that team’s front office would bend over backwards to make sure they got those 7+ innings out of their ace pitcher. Wins are hard to come by in the NL Wild Card race, so look for a certain pitcher-minded team to reel him in.
The five playoff teams will be the Blue Jays, Royals, Astros……….
The Wild Card game in the AL will be the Baltimore Orioles hosting the Boston Red Sox (If Baltimore’s Chris Tillman gets off the Disabled List sooner rather than later). With Baltimore’s ace now out for at least a week, their whole team is in jeopardy of falling out of second place. Their stellar offense should be enough to hold them up for a week or so (look at what the Dodgers are doing without Kershaw), but with a pitcher-lacking team like Baltimore, it’s hard to imagine they’ll hold up for long. (If the Orioles collapse, the Red Sox will host the Tigers.)
National League
Chris Sale helps the Marlins grab the second Wild Card spot
Starting off the NL side with a big one. I know what you’re thinking: this guy was outlandish in the AL; now he’s just lost his complete $&!*@%# mind. But before you grab your pitchforks and torches and start yelling at ATE to dispense with me, consider this: he is one of the best pitchers today. Say what you will about him, the Marlins have one of the best players in history as their batting coach, and a manager with immense postseason experience, including a World Series-winning team (2009 Yankees), as well as great skill in handling the MLB’s most dominant pitcher in recent times (Kershaw). He is the only manager in Brooklyn Dodgers/LA Dodgers history to win three consecutive NL West titles, and if that doesn’t spark your interest in the possibility that this move happens, consider the 1-2 punch of Fernandez-Sale in the playoffs. Certainly an improvement on Fernandez-Koehler or Fernandez-Phelps, wouldn’t you say?
The Cubs have long since locked up the NL Central; they will lock up a 100 win season, but only barely
The Cubs are, in the words of Tony Kornheiser, the 1927 Murderer’s Row Yankees. He’s right, in that they are the most dominant team in sports this year and in recent memory. He’s also wrong, because the Cubs will not win more than 105 games, whereas the 1927 Yankees won well over that with fewer games in the season. The facts are these: the Cubs, no matter how exceptional, have one of the toughest schedules in the last month of the season. They play the Dodgers and Pirates three games each to close out August. Then, September puts them against the even-year Giants 4x, the future AL West champion Astros 3x, and the Wild Card hopeful Cardinals (6x) and Pirates (4x). They have dominated NL Central play all season, but inter-divisional rivalries bring all kinds of weird results, so don’t be shocked if the four games against Cincy and the 7 against Milwaukee yield less than desirable results for the South Siders. I predict they go 103-59.
San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers for the West or nothing
The Dodgers currently (magically, mystically, and astonishingly) have not collapsed with the injury of Clayton Kershaw, their MVP, the NL MVP, the most dominant pitcher in recent memory, etc. etc. The Giants, meanwhile, find themselves in a reversal of fortune, sitting in second place in an even year going into the last month of season play. Only one will make it, and much to the chagrin of Giants fans, Bruce Bochy will not lead them to the playoffs again. Sub-note: no matter if this is right or wrong, neither the Dodgers nor Giants will make it to the NLCS.
Thank God the Nationals released Papelbon, because the Marlins and Mets are going to scratch, claw, rip, bite, and tear away at their NL East lead
The Nationals made the drastic mistake last season of adding Jonathon Papelbon to their roster to take over closing duties from Drew Storen. Immediately after the deal, I turned to my mother and said, “The Nats just lost the East.” How did I know? Because I said the same thing four years earlier during game 162 between the Orioles and Red Sox. The Sox put Papelbon in with a one run lead in the bottom of the 9th, and he coughed it up almost instantly. Papelbon was a fantastic closer 10…even seven years ago. His presence on the team was a complete boondoggle on the part of the Nationals organization, so acquiring Mark Melancon from the Pirates assures that they will hold on to their NL East crown this time around.
The five playoff teams will be the Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers……….
We already ruled out the Giants, which leaves four possibilities: the Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, and Pirates. The Cardinals currently own the second Wild Card slot, but look at their schedule. The same logic that applied to the Cubs will apply here to the Cardinals, just slightly worse. They currently find themselves only 1.5 games ahead of the Marlins. Of their remaining games, 12 are against non-NL Central teams, and of those, only 6 are against sub-.500 teams. Granted there are many Milwaukee and Cincy games on the docket, but they will lose at least 3 or four of those 14. Combine that with an 11-game road trip of rough outings at San Fran and the home run-happy Coors field of the Rockies, culminating in a four game stint at Wrigley, the Cardinals draw the short end of the stick here, missing out on the playoffs. The Mets have the easiest schedule remaining of the three, with Miami close behind. Pittsburgh has too many NL Central games to make up the three games to get into the playoffs, but the Mets and Marlins (Miami especially if they land Chris Sale) have games against Philly, Atlanta (same division as both MIA and NYM, but much less competitive than the NL Central, as well as far weaker teams than MIL and CIN), San Diego, a crashing Cleveland team, Cincy, and Minnesota. This wild Card year will be an NL East-dominated one, with the Marlins hosting the Mets.